For the last couple of years my son has given me The Old Farmer’s Almanac as a gift.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1792 and is the oldest continuously published periodical in North American. It is a reference book containing weather forecasts, planting charts, astrological data and articles about gardening, astronomy, folklore, recipes and technology.
There are 18 different regions in the Farmer’s Almanac in the United States. My Napa property sits in the Pacific Southwest, Region 16. I have been tracking rainfall for the last couple of years in my garden using a couple of rain catchers that my gardener records weekly. So after a couple of years of data, I decided to compare actual rainfall to Almanac forecasts.
Weather predictions for the Almanac are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the current acceleration of global warming, I thought that the actual rainfall data and the forecasts would be off.
The average rainfall for the Napa Valley is 25 – 30 inches annually. In the winter of 2015-2016 my property had 24.75 inches of rainfall. In the 2016-2017 winter we had 69.25 inches of rainfall. This current season, November to March, we have recorded 25.25 inches of rainfall. Two average rainfall years and one over double the average.
The following is the forecast vs. actual rainfall so far for the current season of November 2017 to October 2018, month by month, which is how the Almanac reflects is forecasts:
November forecast: 4.5 inches (3″ above average). Actual: 6.5 inches
December forecast: 1 inch (1″ below average). Actual: .5 inches
January forecast: 4 inches (3″ above average). Actual: 7.75 inches
February forecast: 3.5 inches (2″ above average). Actual: 0 rainfall
March forecast: 2.5 inches (average rainfall). Actual: 10.5 inches
So, what does this information tell us? That as a gardener/farmer, we have to be prepared for all conditions, because Mother Nature is not very predictable! Although the Farmer’s Almanac forecasted rainfall over a 30-year timeframe does average out year over year, each year forecast is not perfect.
I have really enjoyed perusing The Old Farmer’s Almanac and think you all would too! I have used a couple of the recipes, checked frost date averages, looked at weather history and consulted planting and growing guides.
If you have a gardening friend, it would be a fun gift.
